How the scenario math works
The model starts with unique prospects. Positive replies are prospects multiplied by the positive reply rate. Held meetings are positive replies multiplied by the reply-to-meeting rate. Qualified opportunities are held meetings multiplied by the meeting-to-opportunity rate. Maximum planned sends are prospects multiplied by touches. Actual sends are usually lower when sequences stop after replies, opt-outs or delivery failures.
Low, base and high rates travel together through the funnel. The low output uses all three low rates. The base output uses all three base rates. The high output uses all three high rates. That makes the boundaries easy to audit, though it also means the outer scenarios combine several things going well or badly at once.
What the sensitivity section tells you
Each sensitivity line changes one base rate by a percentage point while holding the other base rates fixed. At a 100% base rate, the comparison decreases by one point because an increase is impossible. It shows arithmetic effect, not ease of improvement. A stage can have a large modeled effect and still be difficult, expensive or unwise to change.
Use ranges to expose uncertainty
A narrow range belongs to a stage with enough recent, comparable observations. A wide range is more honest when the audience, offer or channel is new. Keep automatic replies and unqualified meetings out of the inputs. Revisit the model after each controlled campaign instead of treating the first version as a target.
Planning a new sending setup as well? Use the Outbound Infrastructure Calculator. If you need a campaign trigger before you can test rates, build a brief with the Signal Campaign Builder.
Pressure-test the inputs
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